Traversing the “Telco” Topography
This article is the first in a series Telecommunications-related
articles. Future articles will: I) explore the various telecom-
munications service providers, by region, in detail, II) analyze
worldwide ADSL/G.SHDSL/VDSL deployments, III) explain the
various broadband voice technologies such as, VoIP, VoATM
and CVoDSL, IV) review PSTN, ATM and IP networks and V)
describe the various termination equipment such as, IADs,
Gateways, DSLAMs, DLCs and mini-DSLAMs (for MTU/MDU
applications).
For the purposes of this article the market regions of interest
are: 1. Asia/Pacific (China, Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, India
and Turkey), 2. Europe (UK, Germany , France, Italy and Spain)
and 3. North America (US, Canada and Mexico). From 1996
to 2001 the total worldwide number of fixed-line telephones
(business + residential) grew from 740 million to over 1.1 bil-
lion, this growth corresponds to a CAGR of 8.5%. The growth
however was not uniform over the various market regions. As Figure 1
illustrates, the number of fixed-lines in the Asia/Pacific region grew at a
CAGR of 42.3%, while North America and Europe grew at 10.3% and
5.4% respectively.
Teledensity (# of main phone lines / 100 people) helps explain the
reason behind the growth in the Asia/Pacific region. Figure 2 shows
the teledensities for the 3 market regions. North America and Europe
have very stable teledensities; both regions had values of approximately
50 in 1996 and 56 in 2001. In these regions, the fixed-line infrastruc-
ture is very well established; any future growth in the number of fixed-
lines will be strongly linked with the population growth. Excluding Ja-
pan (with a 2001 teledensity of 67.6), the Asia/Pacific fixed-line infra-
structure is not well established, but it is rapidly expanding. In 1996
China’s and India’s teledensities were 4.4 and 1.5, respectively. By
2001, China’s teledensity increased to 14.1 while India’s remained low
at 3.8. China’s 3-fold increase is due to its aggressive infrastructure build-out. According to a recent W all Street Journal article, by the year
2005, China’s Ministry of Information Industry (MII) is planning to have between 220 to 260 million fixed-lines, representing teledensities of
16.9 and 20.0, respectively. The cost of this build-out will exceed $150 billion.
Referring back to Figure 1, the growth driver in fixed-lines for the
Asia/Pacific region is aggressive infrastructure build-out. For North
America and Europe, infrastructure build-out will be tightly aligned
with the modest population growth.
Figure 3 shows the world’s top fixed-line telecommunications op-
erators. In 2001, with nearly 180 million main fixed-lines, China
Telecom occupies the number 1 position. NTT is the largest in
Japan and ranks second in the world with approximately 73 million
fixed-lines. The top two telcos in the US are Verizon (~72M) and
SBC (~65M). Deutsche Telecom is Europe’s largest telco with ap-
proximately 50 million fixed-lines. India’s DOT is growing rapidly;
from 1996 to 2001 the number of main fixed-lines grew from ap-
proximately 11 million to over 26 million. From an ADSL rollout
perspective it is interesting to note Korea Telecom’s success. KT
is the world’s ADSL leader even though it is only the world’s 10th
largest fixed-line telco. Future articles will discuss each region’s
telecom operators and ADSL rollout projections.
The texts extracted from the ITU material have been reproduced with the prior authorization
of the Union as copyright holder.
-4-
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Lines (000s)
Number of Fixed-line Telephones
By Region
Asia/Pacific N. America Europe
Source: ITU Telecommunications Indicators/ADI
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Mainlines Per 100 People
Teledensity
Asia/Pacific N. America Europe
Source: ITU Telecommunications Indicators/ADI
China Telecom
Verizon
NTT
SBC
Deutsche Telecom
France Telecom
British Telecom
Telecom Italia
Bellsouth
Korea Telecom
DOT
Turk Telecom
Telefonica
Chungwa Telecom
Bell Canada
Telmex
Qwest
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Top Worldwide Fixed-line Telecom Operators
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Lines (000s)
Source: ITU Telecommunications Indicators/ADI Figure - 3
Figure - 1
Figure - 2
0
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10